8/16/2023 0 Comments Eia oil production by country![]() EIA issued the new outlook after the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies extended output cuts through 2024. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Tuesday. In the medium term, voluntary production cuts extended to 2024 could represent a bullish development, but macroeconomic pressures and non-OPEC+ production growth may eventually dominate the balance next year, putting downward pressure on crude oil prices. U.S crude oil production this year will rise faster and demand increases will cool compared to prior expectations, the U.S. ![]() According to a modelling analysis of Rystad Energy, the additional Saudi voluntary cut of 1 million b/d in July, with the option to extend, is likely to deepen the market deficit to more than 3 million b/d, which could add upside pressure to oil prices in the coming weeks. In terms of world oil demand and supply fundamentals, the additional Saudi cut will likely expand a previously expected supply deficit in third-quarter 2023, with rising refining runs and end demand. Oil prices fell recently to $73/bbl, the lowest level since late 2021. While voluntary OPEC+ production cuts initially pushed prices to $87/bbl in mid-April, macroeconomic headwinds and strong oil production growth outside of OPEC+ kept crude oil prices well below $80/bbl in May. The 36th OPEC+ Ministerial Meeting is planned for Sunday, Nov. In contrast, the new target allows for an increase of 200,000 b/d to the UAE's target output. The new production targets for 2024 include significant reductions in Russia (650,000 b/d), Nigeria (360,000 b/d), and Angola (175,000 b/d), effectively bringing them in line with current actual production levels. The new OPEC+ production target for 2024 is 40.46 million b/d, which is 1.4 million b/d lower than this year's target. All these voluntary production cuts are in addition to the official cuts of 2 million b/d announced back in October 2022 for the period November 2022 to December 2023. Russia’s voluntary 500,000 b/d cuts, initially starting in March, will also be extended until end-2024 (OGJ Online, Mar. The cuts came into effect in May and will last until end-2024 under the latest agreement on June 4. Saudi crude production in July would drop to just below 9 million b/d, its lowest level since June 2021.Ī number of OPEC+ producers (Saudi Arabia, Iraq, UAE, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Oman, and Gabon) surprised the market by announcing voluntary production cuts of 1.16 million b/d in April (OGJ Online, July 4, 2023). Meantime, Saudi Arabia said on June 4 that it would unilaterally cut oil production by 1 million b/d in July for a month with the possibility of an extension. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) decided June 4 to maintain its production cut targets for 2023, but agreed to set a new, lower target for 2024.
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